Download the Full Issue of Parameters | Autumn 2024
From the Acting Editor in Chief
C. Anthony Pfaff
Welcome to the Autumn 2024 issue of Parameters. The Autumn issue consists of a special piece from the US Army War College Commandant and Provost on their strategic vision for the college, three In Focus special commentaries, three forums (Cooperative Partnerships, Professional Development, and Historical Studies), two regular forums (A Major’s Perspective and the Civil-Military Relations Corner), and a review essay focused on strategy in India.
Keywords: Insurgency, Cold War, people’s war, Mao Zedong, social media, al-Qaeda, Russia, Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine War, Winston Churchill, great-power competition, Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine, information operations, disinformation, information literacy, culture, human domain, cross-cultural competence, military education, bureaucracy, fundamentals, policy, politics, strategy, intelligence, military planning, warning, decision making, strategic planning, Dwight D. Eisenhower, World War II, Strategy, Command, Joint, Annual Strategic Estimate, Harding Project, professional discourse, General Randy A. George, civil-military relations, Retired Flag Officer, endorsement, partisanship, international relations, neoclassical realism, Indian foreign policy, Indian domestic policy, India-Pakistan relations.
COMMANDANT’S STRATEGIC VISION
The Forward Edge of the Fifth US Army War College
David C. Hill, David D. Dworak, and Aaron Blair Wilcox
The US Army War College recognizes the requirements for continued adaptation during periods of systemic and technological change. Currently on the forward edge of its fifth evolution, the college is adapting to provide assessment-based, tailorable education to its students and deliver impactful leader-development programs, research, and war gaming to inform strategic leaders about critical national security choices. Adapting strategic education to keep pace with the needs of the future operational force is essential to maintain the war-fighting edge for the Army of 2040 and beyond. This fifth evolution of the Army War College reinvigorates education requirements in the global application of Landpower. In a testament to the quality of adaptive curricular processes and design, the college is envisioning new means and methods to answer the call that Secretary of War Root issued more than a century ago, “[n]ot to promote war but to preserve peace through intelligent and adequate preparation to repel aggression.”
Keywords: Joint Force, professional military education, information age, human-machine learning, war gaming
IN FOCUS
Avoiding the Escalatory Trap: Managing Escalation during the Israel-Hamas War
C. Anthony Pfaff
Israel finds itself in a trap: escalate or maintain the status quo; absent a political solution, it must develop capable threats that deter future Hamas attacks and dissuade Hezbollah and Tehran from providing the support Hamas requires to carry them out. This special commentary executes an analysis of Israel’s precarious position and, in doing so, confronts the larger question of how to avoid escalation when engaging with violent extremist organizations with clear but unverifiable state support. The analysis provides a clear picture of the problem and offers tentative, evidence-based solutions for evading escalation or an untenable status quo.
Keywords: Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israeli Defense Forces, violent extremist organizations
The Challenges of Next-Gen Insurgency
Steven Metz
States and their security forces often assume future insurgency will be versions of Mao Zedong’s “people’s war,” and counterinsurgency remains backward looking without a theoretical foundation to situate it within broader global security environment and armed-conflict trends. Next-gen insurgency will be networked, swarming, global, and focused on narrative-centric conflict and integrated cost imposition, and social media and the virtual world will be its central battlespaces. No nation has fully grasped that the “people’s war” reflected the military, economic, political, informational, technological, and social conditions of its time. Through an examination of insurgency’s nature, character, patterns, and trends and a thought experiment about next-gen insurgency, states and their security and intelligence services can think about what insurgency will be (rather than what it has been) and prepare.
Keywords: insurgency, Cold War, people’s war, Mao Zedong, social media, al-Qaeda
A Long, Hard Year: Ukraine War Lessons Learned 2023
Michael T. Hackett and John A. Nagl
This special commentary summarizes the major findings and lessons taken from the Russia-Ukraine War integrated research project conducted by members of the US Army War College class of 2024—all subject matter experts on their topics. It outlines seven lessons covering doctrinal, operational, technological, strategic, and political issues related to the second year of the war, including Russia’s use of mercenaries, the need to create a culture of mission command, ways to deal with a transparent battlefield because of persistent, ubiquitous surveillance, air superiority as a prerequisite for successful combined arms ground offensives, and changes to the intelligence and information domains.
Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine War, Winston Churchill
COOPERATIVE PARTNERSHIPS
Why the Afghan and Iraqi Armies Collapsed: An Allied Perspective
Colin D. Robinson
Rather than military factors, American and Western liberal ideas (ideological views) and politics explain many of the obstacles faced in rebuilding the Afghan and Iraqi Armies. Liberal ideas largely determined what options the coalition would use. Ideological factors help explain democratization and reconstruction challenges, partner leaders with divergent aims, military-cultural factors and the Western combat focus, politicization, corruption, and nepotism. This article reviews the differences between Western liberal democracies and partner states, the politics of counterinsurgency, and army accounts. This article will assist US practitioners in security cooperation, institutional capacity building, and security assistance.
Keywords: liberal peace, Afghan National Army, Iraqi Army, security sector reform, security force assistance
PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Restoring Priority on Cultural Skill Sets for Modern Military Professionals
Daniel W. Henk and Allison Abbe
The Department of Defense has failed to distinguish and sustain cultural education relative to foreign language and regional expertise, putting servicemembers at a competitive disadvantage in developing skills to engage other cultures. This article draws on recent retrospective publications and multidisciplinary social science perspectives but goes beyond them to argue for social science approaches to culture, department-wide efforts to revive culture education, and an improved transition of sociocultural research to practice. Policy and military practitioners will benefit from understanding how culture-general skills complement other important skills in the human domain and from implementing its recommendations.
Keywords: culture, human domain, cross-cultural competence, military education
Operating Successfully within the Bureaucracy Domain of Warfare: Part Two
Jeff McManus
This article is the second part of a two-part series. Part one outlined how viewing bureaucracy as a domain of warfare can assist policy professionals in navigating its processes and procedures and then described the first three fundamentals (Politics, Personalities, and Pressure), which are externally imposed and must be navigated carefully. Part Two describes the last seven fundamentals (Principles, Perspective, Prediction, Persuasion, Privacy, Programming, and Permanence), which are internally influenced and controlled and can be developed and deployed as a foundation for enhancing success. Mapping the fundamentals for success in the bureaucratic domain will enable policy professionals to address and balance the complexities of the policy-making process to the benefit of US national security.
Keywords: bureaucracy, fundamentals, policy, politics, strategy
HISTORICAL STUDIES
The Fallacy of Unambiguous Warning
Regan Copple
The Indications and Warnings subfield of intelligence has traditionally divided warnings into a dichotomy of "ambiguous" and "unambiguous" that gives policymakers a false sense of security. This article examines how unambiguous warning has been conceptualized and why it has become an inadequate planning tool that can lead to dire consequences in the quest for certainty. Using the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the Pearl Harbor attack as case studies, the article shows unambiguous warning is an inadequate planning tool that can lead to dire consequences in the quest for certainty. The article concludes with observations about the role of intelligence and the future of military planning.
Keywords: intelligence, military planning, warning, decision making, strategic planning
Eisenhower as Supreme Allied Commander: A Reappraisal
Richard D. Hooker Jr.
This article argues that the historical assessment of Dwight D. Eisenhower as Supreme Allied Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Force in World War II lacks objectivity and balance. It identifies several strategic errors and missteps attributable to Eisenhower, which resulted in severe casualties and prolonged the war in Europe. The conclusions can help US military practitioners and policymakers assess the background and qualities required for successful theater command during wartime and senior commanders’ performances.
Keywords: Dwight D. Eisenhower, World War II, Strategy, Command, Joint
A MAJOR’S PERSPECTIVE
Resources Designed to Promote Professional Discourse
Brennan Deveraux
The Army provides its servicemembers with Army regulation, doctrinal, and organizational publications to accomplish essential tasks—from training and leading units to conducting military operations. Professional discourse is no exception. The US Army War College and Army University Press recently published resources to help the force prioritize professional discourse. These documents provide a starting point for aspiring researchers and a reference guide for individuals and organizations. Combined, these new publications will help the force to take up Chief of Staff of the Army Randy A. George’s charge to revitalize professional discourse in the Army.
Keywords: Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment, Harding Project, professional discourse, Department of Defense, professional military education
CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS CORNER
The Military and the Election: Thinking through Retired Flag Officer Endorsements
Carrie A. Lee
This article tackles the prevalence of retired general and flag officer endorsements during political elections. The column reflects on the influence of these endorsements on public opinion, the need for further scholarship, and the potential effects of partisan endorsements on the next generation of military leaders.
Keywords: political endorsements, retired general officers, nonpartisanship, norm-based approach, civil-military trust
REVIEW ESSAY
Exploring Strategy in India
Vinay Kaura
This review essay analyzes Rajesh Basrur’s Subcontinental Drift: Domestic Politics and India’s Foreign Policy and Feroz Hassan Khan’s Subcontinent Adrift: Strategic Futures of South Asia to explores Indian strategy, especially concerning domestic issues and the relationship between Pakistan and India. The review concludes by noting that the two books agree on the oversized role of the Pakistani military in India’s national politics, where most security and foreign policy decisions are directed toward Pakistan.
Keywords: international relations, neoclassical realism, Indian foreign policy, Indian domestic policy, India-Pakistan relations