Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further institutionalise the NATO–Ukraine relationship. There has been comparatively little analysis of what should happen once Ukraine actually becomes a member. Much like major Alliance expansions of the past – including the addition of West Germany in 1955 and Finland in 2023 – adding Ukraine would require a substantial revision of NATO’s collective defence. Although the outcome of the Russia–Ukraine war remains highly contingent, it is clear that the Alliance will need to reconsider its approach in four main areas: defending Ukrainian territory, beefing up security in the Black Sea, strengthening the ‘flanks’ and sharpening the responses to intensified Russian hybrid attacks.
Keywords: air defence, Article 5, Black Sea, collective defence, Finland, hybrid warfare, NATO, Russia, Russia–Ukraine war, Ukraine
Background image of the NATO and Ukraine flags from Wikimedia (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg)